Founded in 1969, NIRI is the professional association of corporate officers and investor relations consultants responsible for communication among corporate management, shareholders, securities analysts and other financial community constituents. The largest professional investor relations association in the world, NIRI’s more than 3,500 members represent 2,000 publicly held companies and $5.4 trillion in stock market capitalization.
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NEWS RELEASE For Immediate Release: July 17, 2007 Contact: Matt Brusch (703) 506-3574
NIRI Issues Results of 2007 Earnings Guidance Practices Survey
Vienna, VA – According to the results of The National Investor Relations Institute’s (NIRI’s) recent annual Earnings Guidance Survey, a vast majority of member companies are now providing financial guidance on a broad array of longer term financial and non-financial performance measures and have shifted away from quarterly earnings per share guidance.
Key Trends • A majority (71%) of NIRI member company survey respondents provide quantifiable financial performance measurements, which is interpreted more broadly than earnings per share to include such other measures as annual revenue, cash flow and other quantitative measures. This is based on a comparison of 51% of total respondents providing earnings guidance in 2007 versus 66% in 2006, and 47% of total respondents providing revenue guidance in 2007 compared to 56% in 2006. • Of companies providing earnings guidance, more companies reported providing annual estimates (58%) than quarterly estimates (27%). This is consistent with the trend identified in the 2006 survey, and is interpreted to reflect the growing importance that companies are placing on long-term forecasting. • The survey refutes the perception that discontinuing guidance will adversely affect stock price, increase volatility and be negatively regarded by investors. The largest percent of our respondents reported an indifferent reaction from both the buy- and sell-side to discontinuing guidance; that the decision had a neutral effect on valuation; the stock is not more volatile; has not experienced unusual shareholder turnover, and has not experienced a substantial change in the short position.
“These survey results confirm the continuing trend toward longer-term guidance and away from only providing short-term quarterly earnings per share guidance,” said Linda Y. Kelleher, NIRI’s Interim Chief Executive Officer. “NIRI has long advocated for public companies to take a more comprehensive view of guidance. The survey results announced today indicate that companies are providing a broader, more qualitative and nuanced picture of the opportunities, challenges and strategies they face, along with a fairly broad-brush range of numbers where appropriate.”
Summary of Key Findings • Most companies providing financial guidance do so to ensure sell-side consensus and reasonable expectations. (Respondents select all that apply) o To provide better external visibility – 43% o To ensure reasonable consensus and market expectations – 82% o General policy – 24% o Revenue/earnings visibility – 39% o Company performance – 21% o Competitive industry conditions – 15% o Peers provide guidance – 41% o Investors or sell-side request – 33% o Other – 9%
• Financial guidance is provided in a broad variety of measures. Beyond EPS, revenue and cash flow measures, companies that provide guidance also report providing other financial information such as EBITDA, operating income, gross margin, expenses, CAPEX, tax rates, and quantitative information on business measures and other assumptions. (Select all that apply) o Earnings per share – 77% o Revenue – 71% o Cash flow – 31% o Other quantitative information on business measures and/or assumptions – 50% o Other – 31%
• Financial guidance is most often provided in a range. (Select all that apply) o Fixed estimate – 9% o Range: less than 5% – 50% o Range: greater than 5% – 42% o A percent – 12% o Earnings model – 3% o Other – 8%
• If there were any type of material change, 87% would update financial guidance. o Yes, if there was a positive material change only – 1% o Yes, if there was a negative material change only – 6% o Yes, if there was a positive or negative material change – 87% o No, would not update guidance if there were a material change – 6%
• More respondents report that they reiterate guidance than do not. o Yes – 64% o No – 36%
• In lieu of financial performance measurements, 78% provide guidance on nonquantifiable performance measurements such as: (Select all that apply) o Qualitative statements about market conditions – 81% o Trend information that may impact the business of the company – 80% o Industry-specific information – 71% o Estimates or forecasts that may drive earnings – 56% o Qualitative statements about high-level performance measures – 51% o Other – 8%
Considerations for Investor Relations Officers (IROs) contemplating a change in earnings guidance According to respondents, recommendations to change earnings guidance are often driven by the investor relations officer. Of those that discontinued financial guidance, 28% reported that the decision stemmed from the IRO. NIRI encourages members to provide a longer-term view of a company’s financial prospects. Because each company is unique, the decision to provide financial guidance and the type of financial and non-financial information provided by companies should reflect the company’s own strategy based on cap size, industry peers and company philosophy.
Survey Demographic The following provides demographic information about the survey participants and their respective companies: • Company exchange listing: o NYSE – 60% o NASDAQ – 33% o AMEX – 2% o Foreign – 3% o Other – 2%
• Company market cap size: o Over $10 billion – 21% o $5-$10 billion – 15% o $1.5-$4.9 billion – 28% o $500 million-$1.4 billion – 20% o $100-$500 million – 13% o Under $100 million – 2%
About the Survey This electronic survey, conducted in May 2007, was sent to 3,145 NIRI corporate members. A total of 752 respondents (24%) participated in the survey representing a wide array of industries. About NIRI NIRI is the professional association of corporate officers and investor relations consultants responsible for communications among corporate management, shareholders, securities analysts and other financial publics. NIRI’s 4,400 members represent over 2,100 publicly held companies in the United States. For more information on NIRI, please visit www.niri.org. ##